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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna
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To: Simon who wrote (7195)10/24/1997 4:58:00 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu  Read Replies (2) of 94695
 
Simon, there are big trouble looming in the banking system mostly in China, Japan, Pacific Rim and Indian subcontinent. Boeing mumble bumble does not fly, BA can not get financing for the planes it's sells to those countries - e.g. with adequate interest rates that's my take.

If this buble burts we are in very very bad shape. I think AG knows that and therefore he is warning all the time. (since last year)

Tr. Secretary also looked very troubled to me recently, and he relatively knows what he is doing. The coments of the Chinise "ruler" of Hong Kong earlier today, telling his constituance last night "that's an opportunity to buy" is even more troubling.

Just think if some of the Banks ( the bigger ones ) in that reagion including JApan, will need to liquidate their TR holding to cover for all those loans made to businesses who do not make money or to real estate with no paying or tenants at all or worst uncompleted structures. Mexico 1995 is a joke compared with this area.

It smells like a clasic "US S&L " debacle but with players who ;

1. do not have the guts to take action
and
2. do not have the understanding of how to do it.

They all hope that time will made up for their mistakes. Unfortunatly INFLATION will help them out but we are now starting a DEFLATIONARY period and things will get only worst.

Therefore I do not expect AG to be nice in his testimony he will try to drive markets down and people into cash and save the Fed and the US Treasury many problems down the road especially all those pension saving plans (IRA's, K401 ect.)

HAPPY TRADING
Haim
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