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Non-Tech : Deflation
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To: Maurice Winn who wrote (484)2/20/2009 11:30:23 PM
From: JF Quinnelly  Read Replies (1) of 621
 
I've been reading Mish for quite awhile, he does good analysis. I also like Nouriel Roubini's work.

My only real disagreement with Mish is over gold; I can't think of any reason for it to hold up in a deflation. It's not identical to money like it was during the 1930s, and this time it's subject to being sold off if someone needs to raise cash. I agree with you that it looks like it is in its own little bubble right now. Which doesn't mean it won't go considerably higher. It has a lot of momentum, and I sure wouldn't try shorting it.

Buffett gets deals that the public doesn't. Special preferred issues and the like. It would be better to buy a share of Berkshire Hathaway than to try to follow his lead.

I'm content to hold cash balances right now. But if I had to buy something oil might be it. There's also a rumor of a super-capacitor about to hit the market which will revolutionize electrical storage for heavy uses like electric cars. That's something to watch closely.
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