Thanks for the thoughtful comment, Brendan.
I don't think earnings visibility into next year just evaporated, though there's less certainty, obviously, and it's -possible- they'll be singificantly lower than expected.
But possibilities aren't the same as probabilities (analysts generally don't seem to be reducing estimates just yet, e.g., and if they do reduce them, it's not clear it'll be a significant reduction, when compared with the drop in share prices), and virtually no one thinks this is the start of a general recession, which is what it would take to stop AMAT in the medium to long term. The general view is that some capital investment will be delayed -- hardly a crisis for companies as strong as AMAT.
Or maybe this is our difference: by "medium-term" I usually mean from 1 to 2 years out, and long-term several years out. Short-term is under a year, and especially the next couple quarters. If by medium- and long-term you mean 6 and 12 months, respectively, than I'd concur that there are some serious grounds for some doubt as to whether or not AMAT etc. will live up to prior expectations in the medium- or long-term. To get agreement beyond that, it'll take a lot more than what's happened so far.
--John |
