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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
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To: mishedlo who wrote (94710)2/25/2009 1:07:21 PM
From: TimF2 Recommendations  Read Replies (1) of 116555
 
I think the world would be more dangerous if Iran had nukes. As for safer if no one had them. Well it would be safer in one way and more dangerous in another.

We would be less likely to have a war that destroyed civilization, but more likely to have a less serious but still major and very destructive conventional war.

I don't see either war as very likely to happen soon (with or without nukes in the world). As destructive as smaller wars can be I regard the low likelihood of a really major war, something like a conventional WWIII, or something a bit smaller like a 2nd Korean War, China and the US fighting in earnest in response to a Chinese move towards Taiwan, etc. as an important good thing about the world today. I hope it will stay that way. For the near term future I suspect it will. But in the really long term there isn't much reason to think it will, except perhaps the fear of nuclear destruction acting as a deterrent. But the problem with that fear of destruction is that there is a reality behind it. While at any particular time nuclear war, even relatively small scale use of nukes, is unlikely, with more proliferation, and just more and more years for it to happen, I'm really concerned that eventually it will. Maybe not in my life time. Maybe not in the next couple of hundred years, but its not like nukes are going to go away.
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