You have to remember that "all" the plagues have already visited
CYMER. It doesn't have a downside, other than that in the of the entire market and life as we know it. The Semis have one saving grace.
Marketing. The only thing that ever works is better, faster, cheaper,
smaller, lighter and portablility. Do you think they will tread water again and get hit in the back of the head by their own board? No! They
will make everything new again, better, smaller, lighter...etc...
To do that they need CYMER Lasers now! Unlike us they saw this coming.
They already ordered. Our market demand is not "IN PHASE" with the
semi cycle. It could never be.
If it were a situation with no growth, Cymer would then have a down side during the semi sales upside. However, in a growth situation, as Cymers DUV applications face, they have to be able to grow and supply
around the clock while the Semi fabs catch up to the technology.
We have a tendency to beleive that of which we imagine and test
is new. I suppose it is. Yet, as far as industrial applications are concerned we are sometimes a generation behind. It is my bet that
CYMER five times it's size will not be able to keep up to the demand.
About Semi fabs. Do any of you actually think they will sit on their
billions of dollars waiting for the market to turn. They give two
shits about their stock price, unless they are pondering a stock swap
take-over. They have CYMI to turn to.....or sink with their money
belts.
Beware of those with other fallen stocks. Those with bad earning trying to draw analogies between their wreck and Cymer's. Cymi, had
lost it's price to rumor and manipulation. The others I have seen
quoted have had bad, earnings, bad management and/or a FAD product.
There are to certain things....{without a total market crash :)! }
Cymer will need to expand due to market demand....!
The "Snoring doll" Ernie...will have a big quarter!
Bruce |
