You guys should listen to yourselves!
Cymer is a momentum stock that had no business being valued over 30. Cymer has one product and very few customers. This is a very risky venture and it is not clear at all if there is a long term future here at all. I know you don't want to hear it but this stock is fairly valued in the $25 to $30 dollar range and once the momentum bubble bursts, that is usually the end of it and a company starts to trade on it's fundamentals (see NSCP, CUBE, IOM, etc (and probably YHOO next)). I don't think CYMI is going to jet to much over 30 like it would have pre-crash.
As far as analysts go, I really think that if you sell before they say sell and buy before they say buy, you will make money as opposed to losing money by doing what they say when they say it. So now is probably a good time to buy CYMER because I am sure the upgrades are right around the corner.
Also, I am not inclined to group CYMI with the equipment makers as the industry may not be growing but the chipmakers are going to .25 chips and this seems to equate to potential new business for Cymer. I don't see the chipmakers having a choice but to upgrade to equipment that can make .25 chips.
Bottom line is that I'd agree that Cymer is a good buy at current prices but don't act like the market owes you a rocket ride to $70 by christmas and don't have a BM when it takes a minor dip to $25. This stock could go to $15 and still have a reasonable PE. More than likely, it will simply track profitability which should be good enough and the way things are supposed to be. We can all make money with that.
BTH, if CYMI wants to jet to $70, it is fine by me! |
