. . .Where Do We Go From Here?. . .
To answer your question as to when the U.S. Government is going to provide us with full disclosure on the bailout, stimulus and other hail Mary moneys, let me put it like this. We will likely have the definitive report on "Who Shot JFK" BEFORE we get the definitive report on where all the money went. So don't hold your breath.
I hate to state the obvious, but this administration has been politics as usual, with the earmarks, pet projects, political power plays and insincere promises of fiscal responsibility, transparent expense reports and action in the welfare of the common people of America. When we voted in "change", we were thinking change that helps the common people. Well. . .we got change.
Now, we are spending money MUCH faster than the former administration. Now, we are taking heavy handed action to correct the economy (the sort of thing history has proven only makes matters worse). Now, we are closer to nationalizing banks and perhaps health care than at any time in our recent history. Now, we are moving rapidly toward the greatest economic collapse since the bread and soup lines of the 1930's. Now, trillions of dollars of individual, corporate, institutional and collective wealth are vanishing into thin air and there is arguably no end in sight. Now, we are more vulnerable than at any time in the last century to being controlled by entities outside our borders (the Chinese should they decide to dump their Treasuries). Now, we are more clueless about what steps should be taken to get us back on firm footing than at any time I can remember.
Things are changing. Like it or not. The question is, what will the America of 2012 look like? And is this anywhere near the change we had hoped to see?
As I've said on here many times before, a capitalist society requires corporations, institutions and governments to act responsibly and with integrity. When substantial profits come in, allow them to trickle downstream to shareholders in the form of dividends....allow the equity of the entity grow...or else pass savings on to the customer. These concepts died several decades ago. In their place, greed set in. I used to call it "BankAmericrime"...because a bank in California began dealing a highly developed computer aided game of Three Card Monty. My accountant and I tried time and time again to prove that theft was taking place from my business accounts, but each time we returned to the office with our heads spinning.
So if Capitalism requires something the corporation, institution or government is unwilling to provide, then it fails. . . .hence that phrase "capitalism run amok." If this is true, then nationalism and socialism are inevitable substitutes. Once we socialize, it will be nearly impossible to return and erase the change. We asked for change! We are getting it.
The Markets:
As I said here several times, if we fail to hold 7400 we free fall to 5600 and then it is a very short drop to 3700. The decline could last for 4 months or maybe a year or two. I don't know. But I will say that dropping the uptick rule has helped the markets to reach their lows faster. Depending upon who you ask, that is either good or bad. Do you want to lose your blood slowly or have it pour out all at once? (Hmmm...Does that question ring in the dark halls of some top world power brokers?) LOTS of unanswered questions. Why nearly every country on earth has restricted short-selling except America is another one that bends the mind.
That is where I would be a buyer of U.S. stocks. DOW 4000 and below. But while I keep hearing predictions of the economy turning around in September, October or November of 2009, I just don't see how that can be. We are not at the bottom. We are only about half way down in the markets, in my opinion. The downturn in the economy FOLLOWS the market down. It wasn't the 1929 crash that hurt, it was the 2 1/2 year market decline that led to nearly 10 years of depression that did the real damage.
And because the market recovers, does not mean that the economy bounces back to the way things were. I don't think we will ever see things just the way they were. However, that's because I am optimistic about people wising up and refusing to be treated so poorly and cheated so completely.
But that is probably mere wishful thinking on my part.
Best wishes,
Rande Is |
