hi jim, thank you for the note. i think gold should keep up, in some variations on purchasing value meaning, and would do well, but maybe only in the sense that most of all else will have collapsed, not exactly good news, but probably better than total vaporization of net worth, unless one at a singular inflection point, precisely and possibly impossibly timed, or by good fortune, leveraged up and bought more gold, or beaten down real estate somehow either funded or underpinned by gold. tricky choreography. the history books mention some individuals who had done so, surely out of hundreds of millions who were unaware, and many thousands who tried the dance amongst the assets.
we are in a game in which we cannot know how the rules will keep changing against us, cannot quit, most must lose, few will win, fewer still will be allowed to keep the winnings; on three, two ...
the following dark note just in in-tray by perhaps one of 20 odd correspondents around my world wide e-mail roundtable of doom-gloom-and-boom-or-kaboom (i get about 30-50 messages per 24 hours from good folks around the world numbering maybe 20 some, all astute, agile, and of sunny disposition), and it sums up as "the pain is just starting":
As it turns out, trickle-down economics worked. The impact of lowering marginal tax rates for the wealthy led to 2+ decades of prosperity and federal budget surpluses, only to be wasted by a foolish REPUBLICAN Congress and even more asinine Republican President (who hailed Reagan as his political hero). The Republican Party has lost its way and is now a spokesman for the religious right.
Unfortunately, Obama and his mid-level bureaucrat sidekick Geithner haven't missed a lick. Now that he is at the controls, Obama has steered the nose of the plane at a perfect 45 degree angle with a final destination right into the ocean. Get ready for the granddaddy of depressions when the stimulus fails to create growth and EVEN MORE IMPORTANTLY the increase in taxes chokes demand for a decade plus.
The Germans, who are in an election year, are going to reject a bailout of the rest of Europe. The death of the Euro is a foregone conclusion. The European Union is an afterthought. Oil goes to $5. Nuclear War breaks out in the Middle East. We will move quickly to a period of lawlessness predicted by the Mayans 600 years ago. The lights go out on Dec 12, 2009.
Get a rifle and some ammunition. The problems are just beginning.
By the way, nice yields in these US telco service companies.
-James
P.S.
"Investors should be skeptical of history-based models. Constructed by a nerdy-sounding priesthood using esoteric terms such as beta, gamma, sigma and the like, these models tend to look impressive. Too often, though, investors forget to examine the assumptions behind the symbols. Our advice: Beware of geeks bearing formulas." -- Uncle Warren. Feb 28, 2009
i am afraid. |
