Yes, I believe 54 percent of AMAT's orders go to the Pacific Rim, but that is not the source of the underlying demand for the products the chips eventually wind up in. This is analogous to saying tire demand is affected by the economy in Michigan because that is where all a tire manufacturer's orders come from! Surely these analysts are better at analysis than taking the superficial 54% number and assuming 54% of AMAT's orders are vanishing. See the following statement, repeated from above (http://www.exchange2000.com/~wsapi/investor/s-588/reply-9523), which actually has a little logic in it:
Maire, who also believes the semiconductor equipment sector is now
oversold, isn't too concerned with the Asian crisis. "Lots of
semiconductor devices are made in the Far East, but far less is consumed
there, making them net exporters of chips and the like," he says. He
believes that as long as PC demand remains strong, since 60% of chips
made go into computers, the market for semiconductors and related
businesses will be solid. According to Maire, only about 25% of all the
world's PCs are sold in Asia. Of that chunk, most are bought by
businesses that are less susceptible to marginal increases in cost. "If
the U.S. market started to slow, that would be much more worrisome," he
says. |
