Sam,
Congratulations, you have joined all the other "know it alls", both long and short, on this thread.
RE: "...Morgan's cc is a coincident indicator, not a leading one."
This is plain wrong! The rest of the world does bean counting, but Morgan sits and talks, confidentially, with his customers, most of the semi fab owners in the world. Before Morgan's conference call, July to November (4 months), AMAT moved from 22 to 30. After the conference call, November to August (9 months), AMAT moved from 30 to 108!
I believe it is a disservice to other thread members to refer to my methodology and behavior without explaining that my "BLOOD" prices for AMAT ranged from approximately 1/2 to 1/3 of the current price and they did not assume any level of near term future sales and earnings.
Cary |
