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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!
LRCX 155.15+2.1%Nov 26 3:59 PM EST
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To: Defrocked who wrote (3029)10/24/1997 11:46:00 PM
From: Investor2  Read Replies (2) of 10921
 
Very interesting post. It can probably be condensed into this: You are concerned that the next crash or bear market may be upon us.

I also get concerned when everyone is margined or out of money to buy more stocks at lower prices. Many of your other points should not be dismissed without thought, as well. However, the recent market action feels like a panic, which is usually my favorite time to purchase stocks. Bearishness has increased significantly (just look at the SI Bull-Bear Survey), which also usually bodes well for the stock market. Unfortunately, my current equity holding is currently quite a bit over my target asset allocation, so I can not comfortably make additional purchases. (I guess this just typifies one of your concerns!)

Notwithstanding the above, I'm going to generally maintain my equity holdings over the near term (i.e., next several months). I may redistribute slightly among stocks or mutual funds, trying to move into the areas that have been beaten down the worst.

RE: "I cannot explain today's market activity or such low current values for AMAT,CPQ,INTC"

Historically, I don't believe that a P/E of 21 for INTC is associated with a "low current value."

RE: "(6) Credit swap spreads have reportedly expanded by 50 to
75 bps. or more during the last 2 weeks again illustrating
a flight to quality."

I don't know what this means or why it is important. If you have the time to enlighten me it would be appreciated.

Best wishes,

I2
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