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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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From: TH	3/3/2009 10:46:24 AM
	13 Recommendations Read Replies (1) of 110194

Random and disjointed comments -Sister's husband is partner in a tech company in San Francisco. Sells gizmo applications his company develops to Google and others. I guess he freaked when he visited his biggest customer in LA two weeks ago and noticed that half the staff was missing. He says that opportunities in the USA seem to be declining and many of his tech friends are suddenly looking for work. Still, his core business is applications for emerging markets and that is still strong. -Doctor buddy tells me his brother-in-law, who is a big shooter for a VC firm in San Fransisco, is seriously concerned about his job. He just canceled some trips and a new car purchase. There is fear at his firm and just three months ago everything was fine. -My best college buddy, who is now CEO of an information tech company, emails me that he needs to buy gold. This is bizarre, for he never showed any interest in gold before (he has actually teased me for the past few years that I'm one of them (goldbugs)). He is a shrewd investor and has been 100% cash for more than a year. I had strong curiosity for what his reasons could be and he simply told me that there is no way the dollar can withstand these budget deficits. He is certainly not representative of the masses, but I find it interesting that out of the blue he now recognizes that gold may have some value. -Buddy at a big Tier One tells me that internally they are planning for less than 9 million in annual sales. He sounded very concerned yesterday that his special arrangement to return to the parent company (he works for a division of a spin-off from the Detroit Three) is at risk. This guy has always been on the fast track for advancement and is a senior manager in Engineering. -This is a mind-blower. A major GM program currently being produced in China has been slated for US production in the 2011 model year. This is the third action to move Chinese production to the USA that I have been involved with. It is complicated, but it appears that certain parts currently made in China will be more cost competitive if produced in the USA. As a bonus I get to stick it to my Chinese counterpart at my company, as I had to validate his entire program and the USA team got zero credit for annual sales. Now it looks like 1/3 or more of those sales will be booked for the USA 16 months from now. The other two examples had to do with tooling. One involved a very large scale injection tool maker in Windsor. He told me that his business making molds for toys was doing very well, for toys (think Big Wheel type stuff) were being produced in the states again because of shipping cost (large size, low value, lots of air). He told me he has still not seen the high precision molds for smaller parts return to North American production. A trend to watch perhaps. GT TH

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