How important is Eastern Europe ?
Important enough - but most of this will be seen 10 and 15 years from today. It sits between Western Europe and Russia, and Western Europe and Central Asia. Used to be known as Central Europe. I am excluding Ukraine here.
The Demographics are pretty good, better than Western Europe, and much better than Russia.
As their economies build, they will gain more influence. They hae been absent from the world stage for 50 years - they were just a playing board for larger powers.
They hae avoid most of the waves of distant immigration that hae affected the former colonial powers. Most of their immigration is from nearby countries.
In terms of policy, they have been able to re write their laws and taxes in a pro-growth fashion, with less rigidity than Old Europe or North America.
Think of them as a much milder version of China emerging under Deng Xiaoping - they are hungry, pragmatic, studious, and want to re-establish past glory. They have a relatively low cost structure compared to Westren Europe and North America.
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If Eastern Europe succeeds, the whole EU will be a success, and the prosperity will likely extend further into Russia and parts of the area around Turkey. The area around the Black Sea becomes an area of stability.
This discourages the expansion of Russia, because they are can defend itself conventionally, and Russia will benefit from prosperous neighbors - assuming Russia doesn't dominate or provoke.
If Eastern Europe fails, it becomes a fault line of the spread of radical Islam, and/or some neo fascist ideology (which may or may not be pro-Russian). That will tend to split the EU, and may produce a threat to Russia in the reaction.
If Eastern Europe fails, Russia or Germany will tend to move into the vacumn. This can lead to Cold War II.
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So the US, Russia, Old Europe, and I expect China are interested in Eastern Europe.
For the US and Old Europe, it can be a bulkwark against Russian or islamic expansion.
For Russia, a successful Eastern Europe is a barrier to Islamic encirclement. It can also be an encrouchment from the West.
For China, a military pact with Eastern Europe and the EU can be a way of checking possible Russian expansion. Russia won't attack China if there is a risk of a two front war. It also can provide options in case of any future US / Russian agreement.
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With a stable Eastern Europe, it is likely we will see a stable multipolar world.
Eastern Europe fails, and either Russia and/or Old Europe panics, and there is a likely move to an unstable world. |
