Well, basically, the problem with inflationary thesis so far
is that the Fed is, for the most part, trying to push credit
into the system that won't take it. The main part of the
adjusted base growth is reserves (deflationary), while
printing (currency liability) runs high, 79 billion in the
past year, but not high enough to counter trillions of debt
blowups. Perhaps, "only" 10% a year or so.
Of course, since it's all electronic, the Fed is
increasingly hard to track. In fact, I would not be totally
surprised if they were monetizing without recording it
as currency? Or something. Who knows what they are doing,
the soup of facilities grew very diverse and extensive.
Monetization has to be in the Trillions for it to cause
hyperinflation. Of course, if managing rates becomes
increasingly problematic, the Fed may have to print, and
they said they will. But that is yet to happen. They are
shuffling debt and trash around. In particular, the
main "idea" is to stuff the trash on the government balance
sheet, which is, naturally, quite dangerous for the currency.
Maybe, I just don't get what the Fed is doing anymore, cause
it is so damn hard. In particular, I'd like to see a record
of every electronic printing press transaction, but hell if
I know where to find it. -g- |
