Gartner cuts capex forecast again
Mark LaPedus
(03/09/2009 11:39 AM EDT)
URL: eetimes.com
SAN JOSE, Calif. -- Amid the IC downturn and a slump in lithography, Gartner Inc. has cut its capital spending forecast--again. (See table below)
Worldwide capital equipment spending is forecast to total $16.9 billion in 2009, a 45.2 percent decline from $30.8 billion from 2008, according to Gartner (Stamford, Conn.). Gartner has worldwide capital equipment spending reaching $20.3 billion in 2010, a 20.1 percent increase from 2009.
''The dramatic crisis in world economics that came to light late in the third quarter and fully engulfed the fourth quarter of 2008 slowed capital spending in all segments of the semiconductor market,'' said Klaus Rinnen, an analyst with Gartner, in a statement. ''The overspending on memory in the past three years, combined with a retrenching consumer market, presents little potential for an upside until 2010.''
This is the fourth time Gartner has cut its forecast in recent times. In October, Gartner projected that chip capital spending would decline 25.2 percent in 2008 and 12.8 percent in 2009.
Then, in December, the firm said semiconductor equipment spending would decline 30.6 percent in 2008 and another 31.7 percent in 2009. Semiconductor equipment spending was projected to decline by 34.1 percent in 2009, according to a revised forecast by Gartner in January.
Gartner recently cut its IC forecast--again. Worldwide semiconductor revenue is forecast to reach $194.5 billion in 2009, a 24.1 percent decline from 2008 revenue.
Now, it appears that the market is much worse than expected amid the current and horrible downturn. Worldwide wafer fab equipment spending is forecast to decrease 46 percent in 2009, following a drop of 31 percent in 2008, according to the firm.
In 2009, lithography will perform less than the overall market, showing a 52 percent decline compared with the total market drop of 46 percent, according to the firm.
''For 2009, we expect lithography sales to be driven by the need for advanced 193 immersion tools for advanced production,'' according to the firm. ''However, with much of the need for more-advanced production capabilities coming from the memory sectors, demand for the most-advanced lithography tools will still be lukewarm.''
After declining nearly 30 percent in 2008, the packaging and assembly equipment (PAE) market is expected to fall nearly an additional 47 percent in 2009.
''From just under 73 percent of PAE shipments in 2008, Asia/Pacific will account for more than 82 percent of all PAE sales by 2013,'' according to the firm. ''China will be the largest individual consumer of PAE this year, accounting for about 26 percent of the total market.''
The automated test equipment (ATE) market is projected to decline 34 in 2009. ''Macroeconomic conditions, as well as general industry conditions, will have to improve for quarterly growth to return in the middle of this year,'' according to the firm.
''On a regional basis, test equipment sales will be dominated by increased shipments to the Asia/Pacific region. Shipments to Asia/Pacific will account for 70 percent of the total market in 2009, and it will grow to account for 77 percent of the market by 2013. This regional shift in test equipment consumption is largely driven by increased test outsourcing,'' according to Gartner. |
