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Biotech / Medical : Neopath (NPTH)

NPTH 0.000600

0.0%

Mar 7 3:00 PM EST

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To: Sigmund who wrote (58)	10/25/1997 12:39:00 PM
From: Sigmund	Read Replies (1) of 178

In the light of day I realize I might have been a bit too negative. Certainly the granting of a CPT code last week was a major milestone and triggered the Blue Cross of California reimbursement decision. It is a shame that the Company wasn't aware of the Blue Cross decision until it was made. I would have more confidence in them if they had some idea of what was happening in their own industry. But good events happening is welcome good news even if these events come as a surprise to NeoPath. The PMA will probably be approved sooner than projected by Nelson. He talks about approval Jan - June 1998. He also talks about the FDA's need to decide within 180 days. August 28 the date they submitted the PMA plus 180 days is Feb 28 approximately. It would be nice to have a CEO who has mastered basic math. They are so determined to manage investor expectations down that they have lost all sight of reality. Hopefully they don't manage their own efforts this way....but I am not sure about that. My own sense of the matter is that there will not be a need for an Advisory Panel meeting. I would not be surprised to learn of approval at any time i.e. in November or December. That is the reason I stay in this stock because I do think that approval is in the near term. This 25% sort rate is a pretty low hurdle. The problem is that 25% may not be sufficiently attactive to a lab from an economic perspective. That is why Nelson is off in this do-good land of increasing the capacity of labs to take care of the unscreened women and improve the quality of tests rather than talking about how this technology will improve lab economics. Outside of the U.S. this technology is a cost reduction technology as well as a better science technology and this combination will be required to eventually meet full investor expectations in the U.S. This company needs a CEO with more guts. But Nelson won't be forced out because NeoPath will get approval early in 1998 and the stock will shoot up (towards $30) and even I will be happy and this very mediocre management team will stay on and the company will never reach its full potential. Unless we get lucky and they get merged with some other company with good management. This could happen and I for one would welcome it.

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