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Technology Stocks : America On-Line: will it survive ...?

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To: MW who wrote (5243)10/25/1997 1:35:00 PM
From: John Kratus  Read Replies (1) of 13594
 
Re: Strength in numbers

I think that you and most AOL bulls are looking at the subscriptions backwards. Let's assume that AOL is the largest ISP in the world with 1/3 of the world's online households as customers. In addition to being an ISP, AOL also has exclusive online content. And everyone agrees that it is this propriatory content that attracts subscribers to AOL rather than to some smaller, local ISP.

Now, since that content, including the advertising, is accessible only to AOL subscribers, that means that 2/3 of the online households CAN'T access it. (I'm not an AOL subscriber, so I can't see any of the ads placed there.) In other words, any company advertising on AOL is LIMITING its audience and excluding even the possibility that any non-AOL subscribers will ever see the ads. If the same company advertises anywhere else on the net (e.g., Yahoo, Lycos, Excite), then EVERY online household, including AOL subs, has access to the ads.

Advertising on AOL limits the advertising exposure that a company has. When major retailers (e.g., McDonalds, Sears, Lands End, WalMart) sign exclusive deals to be in AOL's cyber-malls and nowhere else, then I'll rethink my position. But, so far, AOL has attracted minor players (e.g., recent no-name IPOs) and last gasp efforts (e.g., SyQuest).

John
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