Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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To: $Mogul who wrote (95162)	3/10/2009 3:39:38 PM
From: westpacific	3 Recommendations Read Replies (1) of 116555

If you look at the actual data from Robert Schiller, you can see that the current 10-year P/E ratio is 12.03. During the Great Depression, it was as low as 5.57, during the 1973-75 recession it fell to 8.29 and during the 1981-82 recession it fell to 6.64. Thus, even if you use the most favorable reference point, the 1973-75 recession, stocks have to fall another 31%. If you use the number from the 1981-82, stocks have to fall nearly 45% more and if you use the number from the Great Depression, stocks will have to fall another 54%. stefanmikarlsson.blogspot.com West

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