Ficklestein: the article is completely false. Cymer doesn't make DUV bulbs, they make lasers and their accompanying tools.
Cymer's customers are not having problems. He's basing this on Goto's comments which were proven inherently inaccurate, the information from which came most likely from Cymer's competitor Komatsu.
"this market isn't huge to begin with..." Semi Fab lines are huge market with an expected 50,000 lines currently operative. Cymer could market 600 or better next year according to VSLI, and this is just the tip of the iceberg.
"Cymer has already made enough bulbs to supply the market for sometime" Who is he kidding? Where did they find this liar? Intel's new Merced chip will be based on DUV technology. How many fab lines will be devoted to the Merced for its planned production in 1999 (the lines must be operation next year in order for production to move forward in 1999).
"their business is just going to stop..." Oh yes, and the same was said of Xerox in the 1950s - copiers are too expensive, too bulky, IBMs steno typewriters are sufficeint enough (this came from IBM). Cymer is only scratching the surface. Nikon, ASMLF, Canon and SVG's future business (a significant portion of it) is ALL DEPENDENT ON THE SUCCESS OF DUV IN THE MARKET PLACE according to VSLI. Baron's has printed much false information of late about other companies. They are correct on a few, wrong on many. Ficklestein must know he's lying. No one can be that misinformed about this business. VSLI REPORT STATED DUV MARKET BY 1999 WAS $7 BILLION. IS THIS GOING TO STOP because Ficklestein said it would? Cymer is the only company in the world now with a worldwide operation in place that is ready to meet the DUV challenge. It will take YEARS for Komatsu and Lambda to develop the same structure to meet Cymer's challenge.
i'm not worried about the substance of Ficklestein's comments, the market reaction may be another without support from those who know Cymer's business next week. it would behove those who are familiar with this business to comment further on Ficklestein, especially Cymer. |
