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Strategies & Market Trends : Sonki's Links List

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To: Nancy who wrote (389)	3/11/2009 1:10:36 AM
From: Sonki	Read Replies (2) of 395

Nancy, good points. Especially on price and volume. Sellers need to sell vs buyer's need to buy. PEG is not a timing tool. Just something i keep track of. It's also not meaningless. Earnngs maybe meaning less when it comes out. Even if the forward erning estimates turn out to be wrong, stocks still keep trading based on forward ESTIMATED earning. (yes E is fictional right now. S&P can be 45 to 55 $ in earning.) I was noticing back in 1999-y2k PEG used to be 4 towards the end of the secular bull. 4 peg showed over optimisim. In the seculuar bear and cyclical bull market (2003 TO 2007) peg never went to even 2 more like 1.x Now we see peg is going to .5. Stocks are going down due to lack of confidence in forward earning. More then lack of earning. In a run from oct 1998 (csco was 50 pe) to y2k csco pe was 200. Back in 1996 csco was 25pe. So stocks went up a lot more due to optimisim then actual earning going up. S& P 500 in 2007 (cyclical bull market in a secular bear market) had double the earning of year 2000. When the chart was showing double top. Anyway all this is just to keep records of things not a real timing tool.

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