My take is, the model for bull market is different than for bear market. PEG for me is a bull market oriented measurement.
Even on both trading and investing (can we still convince people to keep averaging $ into their 401K account?), in bull market you buy quick and sell slow, versus in bear market you buy slow and sell quick.
Also in bull market, the trend is stepping up with sharp corrections every few months. In bear market the trend is stepping down with sharp rallies in same manner. Any very sharp moves are counter-trend moves.
Regarding cash on the balance sheet, I would much prefer INTC paying a healthy dividend instead of throwing to its venture funds judging by INTC's track records of buying up small growth companies. FWIW, INTC has never made such investments work over the years.
Of the big techs, CSCO seems the only one that has a semi-ok track records.
Even GOOG cannot monetize YouTube, just yet. We will see. So far GOOG has not been able to develop any meaningful revenue stream outside Ad revenues.
Someone mentioned this to me on Tuesday, about the leakage of Citi's internal memo about the bank is profitable for Jan & Feb, seemed like a conspiracy. Today Faber mentioned that, "How co-incidental that JPM and BAC CEOs also come out to say they are profitable for the first 2 months?" Faber went as far to say, "May be the government is pressing the banks to say something so to calm the market." Come to think about it, that is entirely possible, because the government has run out of bullets to rescue the WS. With such destruction of wealth, even a person is doing OK would still be more cautious in spending than before - that is not going to help the economy which is largely supported by consumer spending. (Sad but true, that an increase in saving actually does more harm now... though this really should be the right way to go...) |
