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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna
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To: John Hunt who wrote (7359)10/25/1997 4:40:00 PM
From: William H Huebl  Read Replies (2) of 94695
 
Hi John,

Let me get this straight... the oil index, which has gone up 50% since April of this year is showing WEAKNESS???

Well I guess so - about time. It did in August, we had a bit of a sell-off and it came roaring back. (I used 17 with the CCI standard analysis with my MetaStock 6.0)

Then it wacked itself against the Raff Channel in early October and has retreated some since then. We woudn't get more than another 3-5% if it went back to the channel center which it is supposed to do.

Now a total of 10% off a 50% runup is not what I consider weakness. In fact, if you are looking for divergence, do check CCI on Oct 17th and then last Friday (24th). You will find divergence THERE... AND IT IS UP!!!! These are the things that Greensocks (sock it to us, sock it to us) is looking for and will be addressing for FOMC action.

So I have no doubt at THIS point that oil is an inflating commodity which will eat our lunch for us... and maybe breakfast too. Gold is deflating because they can't get enough interest from the gold bugs anymore what with BRE-X and all. Everywhere you look in the gold situation it seems like bad news abounds or is projected. But that doesn't mean it can't go up... it just means there is nothing there to entice people into buying it. And until THAT happens, we could be looking at more lows (hit 12 1/2 year low on Friday).

Regards,

Bill
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