Going 1 step further, the table below shows the weekly changes in the SOX since the bottom in the week ending 11/21. This has been a period of 16 weeks, just a little shy of 4 months. Out of the 16 weeks, 5 have been "up" weeks, shaded in yellow. Notice that there are no "back to back" "up" weeks so far. After each "up" week, the "down" weeks have numbered 1, 2, 4 and 4. After this strong up week, can the market put together another up week next week or will the pullback weeks continue? Notice the semis have performed quite well over the period to the upside, but even with the good week last week, the DJ-30 and S&P-500 are still in the red. The starting and ending values at the bottom line are shown in the small shaded yellow box in the bottom corner. The SOX has the highest upside value over this period of 22.1 percent.
The graphical picture of the SPX over the past 6 months that covers the table period is shown below. The numerical values for the weeks ending 11/21 and this past week are shown on the chart. The week ending 11/21 is highlighted in yellow and this past week is highlighted in green. Note the volume levels for the 2 weeks are quite similar. The week of 11/21 had relatively high volume not exceeded until each of the last 3 weeks. After the "bottom" on 11/21, the SPX trended upward for the next 6 weeks and then started a downward trend for the next 9 weeks with a big change of character this past week. The question is - does this signify a change in trend to the upside, or will the trend to the downside continue?
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