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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 299.81

+2.7%

Dec 19 4:00 PM EST

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To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (43742)	3/14/2009 9:46:30 PM
From: Kirk ©	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) of 95616

Here is why I think we MAY have bottomed... SOX is leading since Nov.... which I believe was a major bottom but not "the" bottom for the overall market... just for the SOX. Bottoms are never the same... but early cyclicals like the SOX usually go down more into a bottom and thus recover more in the next cycle... the reason I trade the sector. lets see if this set of charts works. THere is a chance we do a triple bottom like 2002/3 so one more later on could be expected, but it would be unusual for the sox to be so high with noise from Asia of a recovery already..... unless it is a repeat of the 2001 bottom... and we still need a 2002 type bottom. But I don't think there is the excess inventory and capacity like there was in 2001.

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