david--
here is it simply...MU has said that contract (thus, their ASP) pricing follows spot closely. this is normal in an oversupply situation. companies order dram on a smaller, more incremental basis since they may not need the parts immediately, and they can reduce their average COGS.
now, as for spot indicators we have the AICE, which i like, allthough its usually lags spot by a week or more or achilles which i have come to depend on more. i think achilles is in reality not too far behind spot, and may in fact be exact.
so, if contract prices are following spot, then with semi accurate spot prices, you can extrapolate ASP based on what the company says about the growth they are expecting in the next q (the funny thing is they stick to those targets pretty closely) as well as cost reductions. so, say they made 30 million units last q, and they are expoecting 10% more this q. that gives you the number you need to account for, 33 million devices. now all you need are the prices, which you can get from a variety of sources. using this you can build a pretty accurate model of MUs ASP.
there isnt a complex formula, and in all honesty i expected them to play soem tricks with the accounting. i was honestly thinking that it might be as high as $0.38 or as low as $0.28. i split the difference.
you have consistently mocked our watching achilles, and predicting EPS based on that. my statement was meant not as a pissing contest, but simply to point out what we were able to do with the meager tools at our disposal. in point of fact, i do not recall you ever asking that question directly. you have instead thought us stupid that we would reduce something so complex to something simple. the key is that it isnt that complex. the fact remains...if TK had used achilles he would have been more accurate.
is this exact? no. i was lucky. there were a million things they could have done to beat me. however, i was pretty sure (99%) that they would still be within the range i thought was logical at the time. the great thing was that the upper end of the range was still below the analyst estimates.
did you ever stop to think that maybe you should be asking the analysts what they are using to be SO wrong? i mean, these people are paid millions for being inaccurate. instead of taking the bears to task on this, maybe you should ask the 'professionals' what they are doing.
good luck to all,
trey |
