At some point, I think the stock market will inflate, because earnings will inflate. But I also believe that there will likely be a lower low coming, and that the high inflation being prayed for by the Thugocracy will increase unemployment as sales drop even as revenues rise.
At some point, with our standard of living debased perhaps 25% in two years and 40% in five years, exports will strengthen considerably, and manufacturing will come home.
But alas, our educational system is likely to be eviscerated in the next two years (some districts in Florida are looking down the barrel of 40% cuts), so, Houston, we're gonna have a problem.
The bottom line is that we are moving into the lowest tier of the 1st world economies, and will have great difficulty moving up through the ranks. China will have a split personality -- 600 million peasants, but the 600+ million who've been trained into an industrial economy will propel China to the forefront of manufacturing within 10-15 years. Provided... and this is a big IF... that they get past the corruption and turn the tide of anti-China being created by lead, melamine, and other contaminants being exported. My friend in Australia reports that the backlash in AU is huge already. |
