<This one looks better than anything I have seen since October 2002.>
SPX failed, yesterday and today, right at the 50dma. I'm thinking we get a pullback to at least 750, tomorrow or next week. I won't get even short-term bullish, until we get above (and stay above) that 50dma, now at 801.
SOX has resistance in the 230-235 area, since last November's lows. We failed again at that level, today. I'm more bullish on the SOX than the overall market, but I'll be a heavy seller if/when we get up to the 200dma (now at 273).
I have no shorts, and don't intend on shorting anything at these levels. However, my long positions are all weakly held. So far, since last August, I've sold every rally, and then later decided I should have sold even more. I intend on continuing to sell the rallies.
We are still probably at least a full year away from housing prices and unemployment rates stabilizing. Consumer spending, therefore, will keep on going down for a while. Demand for semi chips won't show any robust growth, until consumer spending starts rebounding. Even if stocks anticipate that event by 6 months, it's still early. |
