Booms, Busts, and Recoveries Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: TobagoJack who wrote (71209)	3/21/2009 4:25:54 AM
From: Maurice Winn	2 Recommendations Read Replies (1) of 74559

The housing implosion and downstream effects make the Y2K Biotelecosmictechdot.com look trivial. The Y2K bust lasted twice as long as I thought it would do in May and went twice as deep as I guessed. This is an order of magnitude bigger and definitely has event horizon prospects, I'll grant you that. The Y2K bust I thought would proceed as happened - our great and estimable venerable idol Uncle Al KBE would see the panic, slash interest rates, markets would clear, the dispossessed would suffer but life would go on as normal for everyone else who would be the great majority. There would not be a cascading deflationary implosion. There wasn't. The details of what I expected were off a bit, but the overall picture played out much as I guessed. This time, things are looking different. The housing bust was obviously going to happen years ago. The banking reconstruction was part and parcel of that process. Once again, I thought there was likelihood that financial relativity theory would see us safely past the disasters which affect those concerned and those in luxury industries and so on. So far, so good. Lots of water has gone under the bridge, many markets are well into clearing mode. But there seems to be a LOT of work still to be done and the number of disaffected people is growing rapidly, hopefully not reaching critical mass for either going nuclear or imploding into Black Hole insurrection. Luck is probably not a bad thing to help out. <i wish them all the luck in the universe > My preference is for market clearing of years, as has happened so far, because cascading collapses are ugly. It is amazing that so soon after the debt-fueled Biotelecosmictechdot.com boom and bust that the MAD [mutual assured destruction] financial weapons of mass destruction were agreed with alacrity by both parties [mortgagee and mortgagor] and third parties bid to get into the dealing too and they were welcome. Amusingly, they all seem to want to blame Uncle Al KBE rather than take responsibility for their own stupid decisions. He didn't force anyone at all to take a loan. I didn't take one. I went shopping for houses in California a few years ago but the prices were extorquerationate. Others didn't need to accept those prices. They could have simply rented somewhere. Mqurice

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