Who's ordering fab tools in '09?
EE Times
Mark LaPedus
03/23/2009
SAN JOSE, Calif. -- The bottom is in sight for semiconductor equipment makers, according to an analyst.
In fact, Intel, Nanya, Samsung, Toshiba, TSMC and a few others have or will begin ordering fab tools in 2009. That's good news for fab tool makers, which are seeing the worst downturn in the history of the sector.
There's more good news. ''We believe business is approaching a bottom, with 2Q '09 bookings likely to be sequentially flat and orders/revenue in 3Q '09 to grow,'' said Edwin Mok, an analyst with Needham & Co. LLC (New York), in a report.
Semiconductor capital spending will decline more than 50 percent in 2009, according to Needham. ''We continue to believe a sustainable recovery of semi equipment business will not come until 2H '10 after the memory sector resumes supply/demand balance and utilization of semiconductor fab recovers,'' Mok said.
''We are modeling 2010 capex to rebound just 11 percent (year-over-year), which is substantially below consensus outlook of 30-50 percent (year-over-year),'' he said. ''We believe leading NAND makers will continue to limit production to maintain stable NAND prices. Without lower prices, we believe the anticipated ramp of SSDs will be pushed-out. Additionally, we expect DRAM capex to remain low in 1H '10 due to slower demand and slow conversion to DDR3. We believe IDMs will continue to increase outsourcing to reduce capex, but foundry cap-ex should recover in 2010 as leaders (including UMC) invest in 45-nm capacities.''
The buyers
So, the big question is clear: Who will order fab gear in 2009? According to Needham, here's the list of buyers:
Intel Corp.
''While orders are bottoming in the near-term, overall semi capex remains depressed. Without any capacity additions, even the leading spenders are cutting their cap-ex by 30-60 percent this year (except Intel). While Intel remains committed to 32-nm, we believe the company will moderate the ramp rate and slow equipment purchases,'' Mok said.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (TSMC)
''Sources suggest TSMC plans to convert 10 kwspm from 65-nm to 45/40-nm capacity. TSMC is targeting 45/40-nm products to grow from <1 percent now to (about)10 percent of total revenue by 4Q '09, which would suggest they need to expand capacity,'' Mok said.
''We believe the equipment orders will be booked in 2Q '09, but AMAT may book this order in its April quarter. We believe the 45-nm equipments are expected to start shipment in mid-May timeframe. We estimate the total size of this order to be $300-400 million,'' he said.
Winners at TSMC: AMAT ASML, LRCX and VSEA.
Nanya Technology Corp.
''The Taiwan government has made it clear that it will not bailout any company. As a result, we believe Nanya will proceed with plans to convert to Micron stack technology to remain competitive. We believe Nanya has an approved budget of NT$20 billion (about $580 million), but we believe the company will spend only a fraction of that budget this year,'' Mok said.
NAND flash leaders
''Beyond Nanya, we expect leading NAND players (Samsung and Toshiba) will place orders for some technology conversion given the improved profitability on stable NAND prices. Overall, we expect orders from the memory sector to improve by late-2Q09 or 3Q09,'' he said. |
