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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials
AMAT 223.95+1.7%Nov 21 9:30 AM EST
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To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (9613)10/26/1997 10:17:00 AM
From: Big Bucks  Read Replies (2) of 70976
 
Hi Brian,
You said:
>>However, one thing I did not see in any downgrade was a shaving of EPS predictions.<<
If there is a perception that equipment sales (next year) will not
be as strong as forcast earlier this year, we may well see some
earnings downgrades. I think this is dependent on several things,
1st- fab delays, industry weakness, or general slow down in growth.
2nd- the tone of the conference call about next years prospects.
3rd- economic chaos in AMAT's overseas markets due to currency or
other instablility.

One of the things that AMAT does have going for it is that due to
the "regional" aspects of the international markets, that if the
Pacific rim countries cut back on spending ususally European countries are increasing spending. The economies of European countries and Pacific Rim countries seem to be 180 degrees out of
sync. As one goes down the other goes up and it offsets the impact
to Applied's sales, all that changes is where the international
market is at the moment.

This has historically been the scenario for AMAT. Everyone has
focused on the Pacific Rim countries, I think that now the focus
will shift to the European/ex-communist countries that are just
coming out of a prolonged economic stagnation and are ready to
stimulate their economies which means production should be increasing
there over the next couple of years as they play catch-up with
the industry.

My opinion,
Regards,
BB
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