New orders for manufactured durable goods in February increased $5.5 billion or 3.4 percent to $165.6 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase follows six consecutive monthly decreases, including a 7.3 percent January decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 3.9 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 1.7 percent.
Shipments
Shipments of manufactured durable goods in February, down seven consecutive months, decreased $0.9 billion or 0.5 percent to $179.1 billion. This followed a 5.2 percent January decrease.
Unfilled Orders
Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in February, down five consecutive months, decreased $10.5 billion or 1.3 percent to $773.7 billion. This followed a 2.0 percent January decrease.
Inventories
Inventories of manufactured durable goods in February, down two consecutive months, decreased $2.9 billion or 0.9 percent to $336.8 billion. This followed a 1.1 percent January decrease.
Capital Goods Industries
Nondefense
Nondefense new orders for capital goods in February increased $3.6 billion or 7.4 percent to $52.8 billion.
Defense
Defense new orders for capital goods in February increased $2.6 billion or 35.3 percent to $10.0 billion.
Released March 25, 2009. This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers' shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed estimates plus nondurable goods will be published April 2, 2009. The advance report on durable goods for March is scheduled for release April 24, 2009.
Our internet address is: census.gov
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ECONOMIC REPORT
Demand for durable goods jumps 3.4% in February
First gain after six monthly declines surprises economists
By Greg Robb, MarketWatch
Last update: 9:54 a.m. EDT March 25, 2009
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Demand for machinery and other capital goods rose in February, driving orders for durable goods up 3.4%, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday.
The unexpected rise in orders for big-ticket items marked the first increase after six-straight-monthly drops, an indication that domestic demand may have bottomed.
Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had been looking for total orders to fall 1.2%. See Economic Calendar.
The monthly durable-goods figures, although extremely volatile, are seen as key leading indicators for tracking the path of economic growth.
Offsetting the gain in February somewhat was a sharp downward revision to orders in January.
The government said that orders for durable goods fell a revised 7.3% in January, much worse than the previous estimate of a 4.5% decline.
But the gain in February did not seem to be a fluke or due to one factor. Many sectors posted gains. Read full report.
Some economists were skeptical that the report was a harbinger of good times ahead.
"We strongly doubt that the February gains represent anything more than statistical noise in these often volatile data, particularly given that large downward revisions are often associated with ongoing declines," wrote Josh Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at MFR Inc, in a note to clients.
"The underlying state of industry is still deteriorating," said Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics.
But Steve Gallagher, chief U.S. economist at Societe General, said the report was "consistent with our view for positive real GDP in the second half of 2009."
Orders for capital goods -- the kind of equipment that businesses need to increase or modernize their productive capacity -- jumped 11% in February after a 14.8% decline in January.
Machinery orders rose 13.5% in February, the biggest gain in just under five years. The sector, which includes construction equipment, turbines, industrial machinery and oil-drilling equipment, was down 26% in the past year.
Transportation orders rose a surprising 2.0% in February. This follows an 11.9% drop in the previous month. The sector was helped by a sharp increase in defense aircraft. Orders for autos and commercial airliners were down sharply.
Excluding transportation goods, February's orders rose 3.9%, the most since August 2005.
Electronics orders rose 1.6%.
Shipments of durable goods fell 0.5% last month. This is the seventh-straight-monthly decline.
Shipments of semiconductors fell 21.2% in February.
Inventories of durable goods fell 0.9% on the month.
February details
Orders for core capital equipment -- that is, nondefense, nonaircraft capital equipment -- rose 6.6%. Shipments increased 0.6%.
Orders for primary metals decreased 0.6%, while shipments fell 1.4%.
Orders for fabricated metals rose 1.5%. Shipments dropped 0.5%. End of Story |
