I was talking price/capability changes. They can come from either improvements or from lower prices.
And if the prices for a battery is the same, but it holds 50% more, than effectively you have a 50% price improvement. You can use fewer battery packs for the car. Also improvements in charge time and energy density are important even if the price per stored kilowatt/hour doesn't go down, which is why I'm considering improvements in price and capability, not just price improvements.
If your ignoring changes in capability, and only considering price changes, then I still have my doubts that batteries will improve as much as PCs (which went from maybe $5000 nominal dollars, to maybe $500, and improved even more in real terms), but it is possible that they could have that level of improvement. Again I'd say that just because PCs did it, isn't much of an argument that any other particular thing will. Still even if the price improvements are less than that, I do expect positive moves here over time. |
