Hi Bill
The Pocono's huh?, near my neck of the woods...Have a nice time and don't look at the markets<g>
After reading Barrons, and reading a bunch of other stuff, i came to the conclusion, that the Bears are emerging faster than ever..
I am a realist of sorts<g>, and don't think for 1 moment that this market couldn't come crashing down around us...
But it won't be from any Asia currency or devaluation crisis..The 1 thing that has begun to creep into all the Soothsayers minds is, Deflation!!!!??????? Huh??? yeah, well maybe, but NOW!!!??? ah, i don't think so!!!!
IMO, we have just begun to come out of a horrid depression from 89 to 93-94..The REAL BULL MARKET started in 94 and is roaring along at a breckneck pace...This year we have had 2 corrections and maybe we'll have another... But a crash??? Not in this lifetime... Oh I know you too do not believe there could be a crash... I got it, ok!!!
But Deflation my friend would institute rates coming down!!! Not UP!!!
If AG has to cut rates, whew!!! the upside could be dramatic... Yes there will be sectors that will under perform that market senario.. But Bill there are sectors doing that NOW!!!
I believe we have ignored the pride, the intellect, and the competitive nature of the Asian Co's... Lose Markets share??? I don't think so... Stop capital spending, not likely, geez and let MY competitor gain a larger share of MY market??? Not on your life!!! No Way Jose!!!
Right now in the next 2-3 weeks, if we get by next weeks eco reports unscathed, AMAT & KLIC will annouce their earnings and talk about the future of the semi equipment makers in Asia and around the world...
Fully 80% of ALL KLIC's business comes from Asian driven orders from the biggest and best Co's there... This alone will tell ALL of us, where and what direction these markets will go in that part of the world..
I think it very prudent to wait and watch and listen to these 2 very well positioned co's AMAT & KLIC, for their guidence on this hotly contested issue... But Bill the Semis are not the only sector to play..Drugs, Financials & my favorite OILS, should be looked at and monitored for entry into these sectors...
I love the give & take of this thread, many bulls and bears here, each with compelling thoughts...All valid, buy mostly just NOISE!!! Nothing but NOISE!!! we shall see very soon whats, what with the REAL direction of the DOW...Money is still at this very moment pouring into the funds, another 4.8 billion last week... I wonder where it's going to go!!!????
I'm very bullish, but scared as always... Blindsides, out of the blues, crazy stuff can hit you at any moment from nowhere... But all in all, it's been one terrific year, yeah very very nice my friend...
I don't own puts, havn't at all this year...I would look hard at AMAT leaps...Sheesh, what a co and what potential for the next few years... It's very tempting right here.. We'll see huh???
My Best to you & yours, Regards, Jerry |
