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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 249.89

+3.1%

Nov 26 3:59 PM EST

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To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (9634)	10/26/1997 1:52:00 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (5) of 70976

Brian, RE: "Even if JM forecasts a disappointing '98, I expect AMAT to rally..." Scenarios: 1. AMAT does not have visibility that extends over the next 12 months. (5-15% probability) The stock tanks and we revisit 96 in 98. 2. AMAT will have flat to slightly lower earnings in 98 and the rapid growth is expected to resume in the 99-00 timeframe.(20-30% probability) The stock stabilizes in the 25-30 range after falling to the low 20's. 3. AMAT confirms the current $2.15 and $3.25 concensus EPS estimates for 98 and 99.(65% probability) The the stock moves quickly back to 50 and proceeds to 75-90 during fiscal 98 as Q results confirm estimates. DISCLAIMER: I have been reading this thread for a very long time and I am long AMAT so I am probably (60%) overly optimistic. I hope not! Cary

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