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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna

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To: Mark Nelson who wrote (7493)	10/26/1997 4:07:00 PM
From: Mark Nelson	Read Replies (1) of 94695

It seems to me that there remains much to be said about the potential for the ASEAN crisis to deepen and expand. When (if?) Japan tumbles will we have the bulls still pounding the table and saying "that's not significant to US companies bottom line!" The Japan banks are too weak to take on the additional bad debt from HK and other loans on capital & real estate investment. The real estate in HK is going to take the same swan dive that Japan did. When the Japanese banks sell US Treasuries to stay solvent will the bulls still be pounding the table? How will the US "monetize" the deficit then? Granted, the fed will probably refrain from changing the discount rate on 11/12. That may seem "good" but it's not if it's because the reason is to avoid economic disaster. Like someone said earlier, the risk does not warrant the potential for reward when we are at the high range of valuations. We really need to consider whether there is nothing to stop the Asian crisis from deepening. I say it's a chain-reacting, domino-effect, snowball. Onward.. Mark

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