|
I have owned amat for 9 months and bailed out on friday with nearly 10,000 shares... dumped my Intel and aol also... the asian markets, particularly Hong Kong smack of manipulation which the pit bulls are set on correcting.... and I can't remember when a country with economics out of whack in the region was able to stand up to the reality of market corrective action... Interest rates will likely rise and choke off the property valuations... banks will see increased rates of foreclosures and people will get scared and severly limit their consumption... as has already taken place in Taiwan, Malaysia and Singapore... fear of losing what you have built, wealth and capital has strange effects on people, they like to keep it... and that FEAR has them take drastic measures... which is easily transformed into other areas of the economy... cell phones, new gadgets, etc... production gets cut, and exports are propped up with lower prices... margins get pressured down and capital spending elsewhere gets reduced, delayed... my opinion... the peg in HK wont stand and I don't want to be invested while that happens... I own some jan 35 or 37.5 calls, and sold jan 55 calls three weeks ago for $5... but as MUCH as I really like amat, and will make it once again my largest holding... I don't want to be holding it through what could be a very turbulent month or two ahead... maybe will get back in before, or just after Christmas... but at this point, would only come back in if the price goes substantially below 30... probably below 25... the next week or two will be very interesting... good luck... as for the probabilities you used... I'm much less optimistic... particularly with an asian crisis too possibly heighten over the next few weeks... what do you think will happen if th HK govt decides to fight the speculators in the next round? then decides to let the currency float? could get ugly... good luck |
