Mayo Says Loan Losses Will Exceed Depression Levels (Update1)
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By Michael J. Moore
April 6 (Bloomberg) -- Mike Mayo, who left Deutsche Bank AG to join Calyon Securities, assigned an “underweight” rating to banks on expectations that loan losses will exceed levels from the Great Depression.
“While certain mortgage problems are farther along, other areas are likely to accelerate, reflecting a rolling recession by asset class,” Mayo wrote in a report today. “New government actions might not help as much as expected, especially given that loans have been marked down to only 98 cents on the dollar, on average.”
The 46-year-old Mayo gained a reputation for independence at Deutsche Bank for his willingness to put a “sell” rating on banks and to criticize investors and companies for trying to curb objective analysis. At Deutsche, Mayo had “sell” or “hold” ratings on all 18 companies he covered, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Mayo said in the report that he expects loan losses to increase to 3.5 percent by the end of 2010. Mortgage-related losses are about halfway to their peak, while credit card and consumer losses are only one-third of way to their expected highest levels, Mayo wrote.
The changes to mark-to-market accounting rules will impact banks’ balance sheets by one-third or less and will have no impact on the economics of bank troubles, Mayo wrote. Banks committed the “seven deadly sins” of banking in trying to compensate for lower natural growth rates and will now feel the costs of those actions, Mayo wrote.
Mayo gave “sell” ratings to BB&T Corp., Fifth Third Bancorp, KeyCorp, SunTrust Banks Inc. and U.S. Bancorp, while “underperform” ratings were assigned to Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc., Comerica Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co., PNC Financial Services Group Inc. and Wells Fargo & Co. |
