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Technology Stocks : Alliance Semiconductor

ALSC 0.810

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Jul 10 5:00 PM EST

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To: Norrin Radd who wrote (1857)	10/26/1997 9:10:00 PM
From: DJBEINO	Read Replies (1) of 9582

"We note that the sub-$1,000 PC may also extend the 16 Mbit cycle." "SRAM SPOT PRICING STABLE" "We believe an inventory correction is long over " (FROM LEHMAN) DRAMs STILL UNDER PRESSURE. Price declines have moderated during the past month, but the steep decline in selected configurations make us quite cautious short term on memory market trends. In particular, 16 Mbit prices came down 11% for both the 4Mx4 EDO ($4.46) and fast page mode ($4.65) configurations last week despite stability in other configurations. At the 64 Mbit level, premium paid for synchronous DRAMs narrowed sharply and all synchronous parts are now below $30 and more in line with EDO and fast page parts. We remain optimistic that memory trends will turn much more favorable during the next 6 months, but we are not seeing that yet. We note that the sub-$1,000 PC may also extend the 16 Mbit cycle. SRAM SPOT PRICING STABLE. The demand for SRAMs is very fragmented. One of the more popular SRAM chips, the 32Kx8 SOJ package 15 ns (nanoseconds) SRAM is priced between $0.80 and $1.20, and the 20 ns chip is priced between $0.60 and $0.80 at AICE, the spot market exchange. SUMMARY POSITION: We believe an inventory correction is long over and that heavy exposure to chip stocks continues to make sense. We attribute current turbulence in chip stocks to the fact the industry is chattering due to the summer deceleration and a slowdown from the peak year-over-year gains: Worldwide IC unit volume, -6% in August 1996 is +35% in July 1997, +29% in August 1997. We believe the industry is now moving towards 20-25% sustainable growth. (

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