We'll see. Sometimes bad news is sold, sometimes it is bought. If there are too many shorts still holding profits and nobody looking to sell, bad news will be bought.
I do believe we are nearing the terminus of this move, at least in price if not in time. I favor it being a great big running flat dating back to the November lows. For chrissakes, we're approaching six months of corrective activity almost everywhere, in the midst of what will most likely go down as the bear of the century. And there's no way in *hell* this bottom can stand for long with all the clowns calling it the bottom.
If we turned very close to here, it would not surprise me, particularly with some of the setups in the emerging markets. Some of those - Korea, India, Indonesia - are nearing the 4th wave peaks of the downwave of lesser degree - a classic Elliot target. If India, Korea, Indo, or Hong Kong turns hard here, or if SOX stops right around here, they look like really nice setups for fresh lows and would be worth a whack.
That said, price can - and will - do almost anything over the short run, so exposure must be managed. I don't know which way we're headed right now, which is why I'm not allowing my exposure to increase. As soon as I see something that gives me some conviction that we've topped out and turned lower, though, I'll be boosting exposure again.
Equivocal enough? Sure. That's why I'm not swinging for the fences. But a great deal could be cleared up as we test some of these critical levels globally over the next couple of weeks; the challenge is to be patient and wait for the easy pitches...
`BC |
