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Pastimes : The Philosophical Porch

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To: Rarebird who wrote (3979)4/7/2009 4:36:11 AM
From: Real Man  Read Replies (1) of 26251
 
Depends. You were right, and those gold/silver bulls who held
last year were murdered as gold/silver entered interim bear
market, but then mining stocks recovered. The dynamics of
that market is changing, and I don't want to stand in the
way of the bull train when it finally leaves the station.
I too expect there could be a Summer dump, and the interim
bear could last a while longer. It is hard to predict
a bubble, but that's what I expect will happen next in
the gold market. The long term profits will be outstanding. I
am not sure where the dump stops. Will it stop at 700 or 850,
or has it stopped already?

Bull markets love to travel light, and they usually leave
most behind. At this point it make sense to hold if
your investment horizon is 3-5 years. In fact, gold chart
is still bullish -g-

FWIW, there are a couple of reasons to buy and hold.

one is taxes, and it's a valid reason.

the second is listed above - for most folks trading in
a bull market results in being left at the station when
the train leaves.

So, by trading you really have to beat both the natural
law of the bull and the taxes. Not saying it's impossible,
but I discovered it to be quite hard over time.
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