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Strategies & Market Trends : Joe Copia's daytrades/investments and thoughts
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To: Joe Copia who wrote (25668)4/11/2009 2:40:20 PM
From: Dwayne Hines   of 25711
 
On MVIS -
a poster at the Yahoo board ran some numbers for a PPS projection for the projector:

Many of us have done this exercise a number of times in the past and assumptions vary each time depending on the number of cocktails consumed. Currently I am sober. I try to error on the conservative side since I would rather underestimate and be happily surprised rather than exaggerate and have Hillerby label me "TYPICAL."

I am looking past everything else and going straight for the embedded solution. The Company has said many times that the embedded market is where the numbers are. So here is the power of the high volume embedded market.....using CONSERVATIVE numbers.

First, let's discount all the other business opportunities of Microvision to ZERO. No Stand Alone, no color eyewear, No Rove, No printer heads, No endoscopes, No Military, no Auto or Aviation HUD. No Hillerby55 :-) NOTHING.

Worldwide market for embedded 60% of 1+ Billion = 600K
Microvision market share 1% (6 million)
profit per PicoP 10 Dollars = 60 Million
operating expenses 30M
net profit 30M
Fully dilutes shares 100M
net profit (60/100) .30 per share
P/E of fast growing Company 30
Projected PPS 30 X .30 = $9.00

Conclusion: Each 1% of market share for embedded PicoP is worth $9 addition to the PPS. These are my numbers and I am stickin' to em. They are CONSERVATIVE and DOABLE. Use your own numbers and your mileage will differ. In the out years I think 10% of the market is doable. Do the math. If we can get 30% the PPS goes COSMIC.

****
if the 10 percent of the market number is on target, then the PPS goes to $90 - and that is discounting all of the other elements (HUD, printer, etc.).
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