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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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To: pogohere who wrote (96378)4/12/2009 9:05:50 AM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu  Read Replies (3) of 116555
 
where did you post a link to "The Roving Cavaliers of Credit" I think his analysis is basically flawed related to the money multiplier of a depositor.

The bank need 10% of equity it can not use the depositor money and just lend out 90% of it.

If a bank has $100 in equity and a depositor deposits $100,000 the bank can only lend out $1,000 and not $90,000

the remaining $99,000 the bank can buy treasuries but no more than the value of the remaining deposit. The depositor can leverage its deposit by 20 by buying treasuries (5% margin needed), but the bank can not.

In real life those lines are getting blurred and mark to market only made things worse when the market went up (yield down) the bank equity went up and the bank was able to lend out more, based on the appreciation of the tresuries it held (increased bank equity) - now we are in reverse

Investing in AAA rated MBS’s or CDO’s and buying CDS’s AAA rated also increased the bank equity very substantially which enabled the bank to lend out more etc. and that is the root of the credit debacle – mark to market in a credit bull market and ignoring the present value of the debenture the bank invested into, which debenture value remained the same by maturity!!

correct me if I am wrong
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