"the implication for mid-game and end-game per you read is what?"
I am more and more convinced that the deflation that TPTB claim to be holding off will not be prevented (per Keen): we are likely to see quite a continuing collapse of the global economic edifice (see, e.g.: Summary of Rail Freight Traffic from Atlantic Systems Inc.
Data through April 4, 2009 -- 13 W 2009
A Weekly Report of North American Rail Freight Traffic
by Major Railroad and Commodity
railfax.transmatch.com )
This deflation is likely bring down many an enterprise, and, if I am understanding Bob Hoye, who has called this quite well, will serve to buoy the value of the US$ longer than many imagine is possible. So near term, I'd hazard that the US$ will defy expectations that it will collapse soon. It may even gain relative to other currencies as the inability of TBTB to reflate fails due to the enormity of the credit extended that is now imploding way faster than the increase in liquidity now being attempted (assuming these efforts are sincere).
So near to mid game: the US$ hangs on to its value or erodes at a much slower pace than heretofore I imagined was possible. There are "exogenous" factors that can come into play that could boost the nominal US$ price of energy/precious metals, commodities: Israel succumbs to the temptation that it can survive an attack by it on Iran and proceeds to the attack. Big woes follow all around. In any case, my notion is that US$ cash stash is called for, as well as energy and precious metals. Copper is looking good just now. Severe deflationary collapse militates in favor of keeping all stashes close by, as you have pointed out.
Keeping in mind the next Armstrong date of ~April 19, a peak in his confidence model, sometime in late April til mid to late May I will probably exchange some of my physical metal holdings that I hold at too great a distance from me to be comfortable with, for more Canadian royalty energy trusts (I happen to like Daylight [DAY.UN]) and cash. If there is a run up of my silver equities based in Mexico I will trade them in mostly for US and Canadian located enterprises: Mexico scares me, and as you have said, it's better to panic early.
With copper in mind: China's efforts to "domesticate" its economy appear to be gaining traction, albeit with a lot of misery. So what's new? Hundreds of millions of Chinese never lived in the Disneyland that so many in the US and Europe have been living in. There are some advantages to China's type of command economy.
End game: wowser!! My sense is that the time available to make major shifts in personal investments and plans is running out faster that I imagined. My contemplation of the immensity of the credit crash tells me there are no equivalents in history to use as guides. Even Keen, way down in the comments following his article uses a word I have read in your posts: biblical. I confess I can't even guess when hyperinflation kicks in given what is unfolding. I believe precious metals and energy will be money equivalents for quite a season, i.e. years. Jim Sinclair has written that the shorting (naked and otherwise) of precious metal juniors is not intended for short term profits, but rather to prevent the juniors from financing themselves and to capture them at absurdly low prices in an anticipation of quite a run up in their value. The implication is clear: big money/inside money sees the metals complex as one of the key places to be.
The long term landscape appears to favor those who are liquid, currently out of debt, well hedged with metals, cash, energy and the ability to abandon ideas whose time has come and gone.
my best to you and yours |
