"Krugman, Stiglitz, and many other top economists are all on the same page, so you are arguing with the smartest economists in the country."
Everybody can actually be wrong at the same time, e.g. the earth does not go around the sun.
At one time, zero geologists believed that massive transformations in the geological landscape could happen overnight. One guy thought of how an incredibly massive flood did such a thing. He was laughed about for the rest of his life. Eventually, he died, and later, another came up with the paper describing evidence of gigantic waves along the hills along certain valleys, and suddenly, a light went off in everybody's head in the room, and instantly, they all realized how wrong they had been for so long about the first guy's theory.
I'm not saying "Don't do anything at all..." but I am saying that with gov't sponsored projects (infrastructure or whatever) a bureaucrat sitting at a desk in D.C., based on political, cultural, or coffee jitters, decides what infrastructure *probably* will be useful for the next 20 years, and so funds it.
Suppose in 20 years, driving is 30% less than today (oil dropoff, costs exponentiate, etc.). That huge investment in unnecessary (or overcapacity) roads now seems foolhardy.
The idea here is that the gov't is going to be one of the worst at using the investment monies efficiently.
Here's an example btw of gov't supporting infrastructure in a way which proved extremely inefficient. In the late 70s and early 80s, you could get a sizeable tax credit for putting up storm windows. The energy savings were estimated at 25%. In the late 80s, Consumers Union (and others no doubt) debunked that claim and said, at best, the savings was 5%, and because of cost and interest expenses, one would never make their money back.
Private sector improvements in the kinds of windows produced made window upgrades more cost effective a few years later. But even now, it's still only recommended if you need the overall upgrade for other reasons in addition to increased efficiency.
And never in my wildest nightmares (nor yours I hope) would we be giving away our future to the very rogue souls who've damaged our real economy to such an extent. But THAT is one of the MASSIVE investments we are making right now. |
