Let me be the first to comment, as it is somewhat unlikely that the biotech boys will be following you into such remote territory. Of course, remote is a relative term, and I assume that as a TD, TRN is not remote to you. You're a smart guy, and an excellent speculator, as your well-timed forays in and out of DSCO demonstrate. Like an old bloodhound on the prowl, I think you've got something. But whether it's an old shoe or something a little more valuable remains to be seen.
It's always good to have an interesting theme that can grip people's imagination. As Daniel Burnham once said, "Make no small plans; they have no magic to stir mens' souls." A high-speed rail network is such a plan and it can stir the souls of politicians, engineers, speculators and the public, even though, if it were up to me, I would first simply place a two story car containing bikeracks at the lower level and passenger seats at the upper level on every Amtrak train in the country. This would solve the classic first and last mile problem for many commuters and others, while also increasing car-free days and helping to solve our embarrassing obesity problem. But as a realist, I will readily admit that fixing Amtrak in a myriad of little ways may simply not be a grandiose enough vision for the most dynamic young American president to come along in the last 48 years. And it certainly does not measure up to the Burnham test, even though it does stir my bike-lovin' soul.
But getting back on point, I find your thesis that TRN will be a prime beneficiary of the build-out of high speed rail networks to be somewhat questionable. How exactly do you get there from the kinds of low tech metal-bending work this company does? trin.net
Mostly I just see a good recovery candidate in this very cyclical company. In fact, in just the last 40 trading days it has already doubled. Right now, you can practically throw a dart and do well in the stock market. But as May rolls around some investors will start to bolt in the time-honored tradition. Still others will find an excuse to be spooked in October. It will be interesting to see how TRN behaves this year. Compared to DSCO, I think the risk/reward characteristics are excellent, even though the unfolding will be much more gradual.
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