Rick and ALL,
Rick you said > My question is, is this perhaps not quite the high
volume test and money maker for us we have been hoping----<
Below is my strawhorse stab at a market anlysis. Anyone on this thread is welcome to change the numbers.
The government is going to launch a national campaign. I will assume
that their study about testing the whole population will not come to anything, but the awareness campaign is real. We have a precedent for this, some years back the government had a campaign about swine fever.
I have not researched it yet. Based on that campaign, we should be able to determine what percentage of the population responded.
Keep in mind we have the internet & CNN now, we did not then.
OK here goes, all numbers are arguable.
First year of campaign.
Population of the USA. 260,000,000
15% of public responds 39,000,000
Quidel gets 20% market share. 7,800,000
Guess at revenue per kit to QDEL $6
(Distributers get $13 per kit.)
Revenues to QDEL from market share $46,800,000
Profits to QDEL (35,100,000 X.50) $23,400,000
Addition to earnings per share
($23,400,000/23,000,000) $1.17 |
