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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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From: TH4/24/2009 12:59:48 PM
9 Recommendations  Read Replies (6) of 110194
 
Very interesting trading. We are getting very near my upside target for the broad market, except if one of my assumptions is wrong.

I assume that arrangements were made at the G20 to keep the status quo on the dollar. If that agreement either was not made or fails, then we may see the start of a new inflation trade. An exodus from the dollar would put tremendous pressure on treasury auctions and force Blackhawk's hand at buying up the long end. Thus a vicious cycle to the power of something could get started and be very difficult to reverse. Equities and gold would absolutely rock.

Dollar weakness in front of 100 billion in treasuries next week is maybe a tell.

I'll post some automotive updates this weekend, as I've got a bunch and I'm overdue to blab. The GM shutdown for 9 weeks is going to destroy many players. My primary competitor will announce on Monday they are done. Game over. Remaining players may eat the carcass. I'm hungry and already have an invite to dinner.

One personal silver lining with the GM shutdown is the particular and twisted joy I experienced this morning telling one major player that their released orders are firm and we are shipping all the material on P.O. Now why would I treat a customer this way? Because these idiots wouldn't listen to me when I told them that frontloading in light of the high potential of a GM bankruptcy was just plain stupid and that I would need special "firm and irrevocable" orders before I would commit to supporting such base stupidity. Of course I didn't know it would be a shutdown and not a BK that would create the chaos, but I don't much care about the why.

GT
TH
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