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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
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To: ajtj99 who wrote (96990)4/24/2009 7:53:30 PM
From: SouthFloridaGuy1 Recommendation  Read Replies (1) of 116555
 
By my analysis, emerging markets have broken out and the recession will be over in 9-12 weeks based on payroll data I have been receiving. The same reflation factors that will push gold are pushing EM. Gold is a reflation asset not a deflation asset. Only cash is deflation asset.

To call the rally over before any evidence of inflation (within the current US deflationary context) is totally premature.

The market is so fixated on deflation, they are missing the ball on a rotation out of bonds and into risk assets. People are totally under invested right now as cash was the asset class of choice on Jan 1.

You need to get people invested again before you can whack them. The market always causes the most pain to the most people possible and some markets like Bovespa could make new highs. Anybody who cares to study 1932 US, 1974 Hong Kong, 1999 Asia/LatAm will see the same thing occur over and over again with "crash" charts.

I think the markets go to pre-Lehman brothers by year-end. Furthermore we could easily be at 5000 Dow by 2012 if Bernanke's strategy blows up by way of a dollar crash, which I believe is in the cards (DXY about to break down to start - bullish for gold/silver/oil). But not yet, this is the sweet-spot 'goldilocks' stabilization/improvement.

Please no more "debate" on this, you have your call and I have mine.
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