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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum
GLD 389.75+0.5%Dec 1 4:00 PM EST
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To: TobagoJack who wrote (49142)4/25/2009 12:41:04 AM
From: Maurice Winn2 Recommendations  Read Replies (2) of 218135
 
Everywhere there are markets and everything is for sale. There's no need to guess at the price of sheep. Here are prices: agridata.co.nz

There are only 14 million sheep in Mongolia. There are about 40 million in NZ, which half as many as 20 years ago when there were subsidies for growing sheep and other economic impetus. Oz has lots of sheep too.

So the 14 million sheep in Mongolia is not a big deal and could all be sold tomorrow without reducing prices much. A sheep is not a lot different from an ox and both are destined for dinner. So prices don't have to move far to shift buying from one product to another.

NZ should be okay on prices for agricultural products because 6 billion people still want to eat though they might not buy a new SUV, a Starbucks Frappe Tall, a holiday in Bora Bora, or Tora Bora, and will cancel their Cessna Citation order.

But triangulate NZ$/Yen/US$/House prices/Trade deficit/tax revenue/interest rates/rents/incomes/debts and there might not be enough sheep to keep the house of cards stacked up. I should be clear and straight, there are NOT enough sheep to keep NZ stable. I am waiting for US40c to the NZ$ [currently 57c down from peak 83c when I was advising you to short it in bulk].

$170bn debt and 40 million sheep = $4,000 per sheep = not enough sheep to make NZ rich or even to avoid bankruptcy. We'd need about 4 billion sheep to cover the loans at normal prices. With 4 billion sheep for sale, the price might go down a bit too. There might not be enough grass and the mess of poop would be too much to contemplate.

Mqurice
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