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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
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To: ajtj99 who wrote (97029)4/25/2009 9:31:36 AM
From: SouthFloridaGuy  Read Replies (3) of 116555
 
I went very bearish in October 2007 which is on the record on SI and am intermediate term bullish April 2009. We are in a cyclical bull within a secular bear. Only an exogenous demand shock a la Lehman Brothers/AIG will take us down at this point.

I won't fight a steep yield curve, huge drop in equity and credit volatility, fair value housing prices, below average corporate profit margins, backwards looking nosebleed VaR readings, CAPEX below 70%, overall underinvested investment community, stabilization and reemergence of the carry-trade, and breakout in Emerging Market stocks. Go ahead, you can.

The next worry is inflation, not deflation, though I agree with Mish that we are in a long-term secular deflation.

I'm sure in 2 years you'll be letting everyone know how you called the bottom in Feb 2009.
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